Iran: Public Dissent in the Age of the New Media

Coauthored by Erik van Zuylen

Some three months after the controversial presidential election in Iran on 12 June 2009, the country is still far from back to normal. After a period of relative silence, thousands of protestors used the symbolic Quds day, usually a day of rallies in support of the Islamic Republic, to protest the election fraud and the violence that followed it.

Coauthored by Erik van Zuylen and an Iranian research fellow for the Knowledge Programme

Some three months after the controversial presidential election in Iran on 12 June 2009, the country is still far from back to normal. After a period of relative silence, thousands of protestors used the symbolic Quds day, usually a day of rallies in support of the Islamic Republic, to protest the election fraud and the violence that followed it. This is especially remarkable given that the regime used its full force in an attempt to
strangulate dissent. The developments of the previous months reflect a significant change which moved civil society years ahead. The unique experience of political solidarity gave civil society the courage to stand up to a repressive authoritarian regime. The public has, for the first time in thirty years, found the courage to express its discontent openly despite threats of retribution. New media, such as blogs and websites,
have served as important outlets in this process. The main opposition leaders, Mohammad Khatami, Mir-Hossein Musavi and Mehdi Karrubi have publicized statements through the Internet, despite the ever-present threat of arrest. Open statements issued by these leaders are instrumental in keeping alive criticism of the atrocities of the regime and keeping the spirit of resistance high within the protest movement.
After the large protests on Quds day, an atmosphere of hope still lingers in the political statements of the dissidents, who refuse to be silenced, even though the regime is trying to muzzle free speech and destroy the evidence of its atrocities. Despite risks of serious retribution, activists still discuss these issues openly in the rapidly shrinking independent media. The regime is increasing its pressure on the few remaining newspapers, shutting down the offices of political and social organizations. Blogging and websites have developed into alternative media sources. The blogs are used as a means of information provision, bypassing the blockade of the independent media. Along with blogs, social networking sites such as Facebook are also serving as a forum for debating critical social, political and religious issues. The internet is also used for organizing protests. Attempts by the authorities to crack down on bloggers reflect the regime’s fear of the Internet which it sees as a threat to national security.
The regime means to prevent general access to open sources of information through heavy censorship and by bombarding the public with propaganda broadcast by the state-run media. But, so far, the mobile and internet technology, and the websites and bloggers, have managed to maintain a narrow flow of information to those seeking it. The important role played by the Persian programs of the BBC and VOA should also be
mentioned. They have become platforms for the expression of dissident voices from within Iran. The public are increasingly turning away from the state-run media. The Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting admitted a 40 per cent drop in viewership in the months following the 12 June election. The persistence of opposition forces despite the regime’s strategy to terrorize them, could be an indication that the strategy of inciting fear may not be working. Moreover, the repressive actions of the regime have added to the public distrust, as a new round of show trials accuse many respected revolutionaries and former state functionaries of treason. The regime appears to be limiting its own possibilities for new alliances, while enhancing the possibility of the formation of new anti-regime alliances. It is almost inevitable that the regime’s repressive apparatuses will eventually manage to damage a large part of the organizational networks of the opposition. But there is a chance too that the regime’s denial of the serious political, social, economic and security problems in the country will result in the re-emergence of the protests, perhaps with renewed decisiveness and with more radical demands.
Lurking in the background of this already extremely complex and critical situation are international tensions which threaten to resurface. Iran has many cards in its hand in the different crises around the Greater West Asia region, ranging from Iraq to Lebanon, from Palestine to Afghanistan. Furthermore, the International Community is still very worried about the Iranian nuclear program. Iranian civil society might be the victim of these tensions, when Western countries accept to stay silent on the growing human rights violations in the country, in exchange for a less hostile Iranian foreign policy. Added to this is the highly unpredictable behavior of Israel, which faces its own domestic and international legitimacy crisis and might even result in a destructive war. Domestically, two main factors will determine the future course of the political crisis in
Iran: on the one hand, the repressive powers of the regime and its continued willingness to use these powers; and on the other hand, the leadership of the protest movement and its capacity to reorganize. For the protest movement, cyberspace, and blogging in particular, are set to continue to play a vital role in information provision, facilitating public debate and organizing social and political networks. At the same time, both the regime and its critics will be highly dependent on decisions taken by leaders of other states in the international arena. All in all, Iran appears to be set for some of the most critical years of its modern history.

Erik van Zuylen wrote his thesis on Scenarios of Political Regime Change in Iran. See also: http://iranscenarios.wordpress.com.

Source: Civil Society in West Asia Newsletter-Issue 1, October 2009.